{"id":269,"date":"2021-01-13T10:38:40","date_gmt":"2021-01-13T09:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/apenize.cz\/?p=269"},"modified":"2021-01-13T10:38:42","modified_gmt":"2021-01-13T09:38:42","slug":"dopad-pandemie-na-evropskou-ekonomiku-cekaji-nas-problemy-i-v-dlouhodobem-horizontu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/?p=269","title":{"rendered":"Dopad pandemie na evropskou ekonomiku: \u010cekaj\u00ed n\u00e1s probl\u00e9my i v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee pandemie m\u00e1 krom\u011b negativn\u00edch dopad\u016f i n\u011bkter\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed d\u016fsledky. Jak n\u00e1s tyto zm\u011bny ovlivn\u00ed dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed se pokusili odhadnout ekonomov\u00e9 na port\u00e1lu Voxe.
Ethan Ilzetzki p\u00ed\u0161e, \u017ee a\u010dkoli skute\u010dn\u011b do\u0161lo k naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f, v t\u00e9to chv\u00edli nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda p\u016fjde o faktor dlouhodob\u00fd. B\u011bhem pandemie tak\u00e9 zbankrotovaly n\u011bkter\u00e9 firmy a m\u016f\u017ee si to vy\u017eadovat ur\u010dit\u00fd \u010das, dokud je nahrad\u00ed nov\u00e9. Negativn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee p\u016fsobit i ztr\u00e1ta pracovn\u00edch dovednost\u00ed a r\u016fst zadlu\u017een\u00ed korpor\u00e1tn\u00edho sektoru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 jsou pozitivn\u00ed d\u016fsledky koronakr\u00edzy, kam m\u016f\u017eeme za\u0159adit rychlej\u0161\u00ed implementaci nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed \u010di v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed investice do zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de. Evropsk\u00e1 komise v t\u00e9to souvislosti odhaduje, \u017ee potenci\u00e1l francouzsk\u00e9 a n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky bude v letech 2020-2021 o p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ale dlouhodob\u011b ho pandemie nijak nezm\u011bn\u00ed. Britsk\u00e1 Kancel\u00e1\u0159 pro rozpo\u010dtovou odpov\u011bdnost OBR p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee produktivita klesne o 2% a nab\u00eddka pr\u00e1ce o 1%, a to dlouhodob\u011b, ale jej\u00ed projekce maj\u00ed i \u0159adu alternativn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Na ot\u00e1zku, o co ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed bude kv\u016fli pandemii \u00farove\u0148 potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho produktu v euroz\u00f3n\u011b v roce 2025 (m\u011b\u0159eno k projekc\u00edm vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00fdm p\u0159ed covidom)? odpov\u011bd\u011bli osloven\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 n\u00e1sledovn\u011b. V\u011bt\u0161ina dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee potenci\u00e1l bude o 2 – 5% ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, asi 20% ale hovo\u0159\u00ed o nulov\u00e9m poklesu potenci\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dopad pandemie na evropskou ekonomiku: \u010cekaj\u00ed n\u00e1s probl\u00e9my i v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Druh\u00fd graf vykresluje odpov\u011bdi podle toho, jak ekonomov\u00e9 sv\u00e9mu odhadu v\u011b\u0159\u00ed. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 hovo\u0159\u00ed o mo\u017en\u00e9m negativn\u00edm vlivu pramen\u00edc\u00edm z probl\u00e9m\u016f ve vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00edm syst\u00e9mu \u010di z komplikac\u00ed, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00ed firemn\u00ed sektor. Jin\u00ed ale vyzdvihuj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 investice do nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch zelen\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 by mohly v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku potenci\u00e1l zvedat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Dopad pandemie na evropskou ekonomiku: \u010cekaj\u00ed n\u00e1s probl\u00e9my i v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonom Jagjit Chadha v souvislosti s pr\u016fzkumem pouk\u00e1zal na velk\u00e9 rozd\u00edly mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi a ekonomikami euroz\u00f3ny. Ty najdeme nap\u0159\u00edklad na stran\u011b fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacity, a to ve schopnosti reagovat na \u00fatlum fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm uvoln\u011bn\u00edm \u010di v efektivit\u011b syst\u00e9mu zdravotn\u00ed a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed dva grafy se nam\u00edsto \u00farovn\u011b potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho produktu zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na n\u00e1zory t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho r\u016fstu. Zat\u00edmco mnoho ekonom\u016f se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee \u00farove\u0148 potenci\u00e1lu by mohla b\u00fdt v roce 2025 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, v\u011bt\u0161ina si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee tempo r\u016fstu by pandemi\u00ed nem\u011blo b\u00fdt dot\u010deno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dopad pandemie na evropskou ekonomiku: \u010cekaj\u00ed n\u00e1s probl\u00e9my i v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 se \u010dasto ve sv\u00fdch odpov\u011bd\u00edch t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho r\u016fstu odvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed na zku\u0161enosti z p\u0159edchoz\u00edch reces\u00ed nebo hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, \u017ee pandemie by nem\u011bla ovlivnit dlouhodob\u00fd inova\u010dn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l. Jin\u00ed op\u011bt p\u0159ipustili mo\u017enost, \u017ee pandemie naopak tento potenci\u00e1l je\u0161t\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, porostou i investice do infrastruktury a celkov\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee pandemie m\u00e1 krom\u011b negativn\u00edch dopad\u016f i n\u011bkter\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed d\u016fsledky. Jak n\u00e1s tyto zm\u011bny ovlivn\u00ed dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed se pokusili odhadnout ekonomov\u00e9 na port\u00e1lu Voxe.Ethan Ilzetzki p\u00ed\u0161e, \u017ee a\u010dkoli skute\u010dn\u011b do\u0161lo k naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f, v t\u00e9to chv\u00edli nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda p\u016fjde o faktor dlouhodob\u00fd. B\u011bhem pandemie tak\u00e9 zbankrotovaly n\u011bkter\u00e9 firmy a m\u016f\u017ee si […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":270,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-finance"],"amp_enabled":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=269"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apenize.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}